📊 3-Tier Portfolio Strategy — paper-bet validation

For every analyzed game, generate three bets across risk profiles. Track every paper-bet whether placed or not. After 30-50 weekends, we know if the methodology beats the market.

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⚡ This weekend's portfolio is live

12 paper-bets across 4 games (SAS-MIN G6 · CLE-DET G6 · PIT-PHI weekend · PGA). Primary BCE test: Pistons G7 tonight Sun 5/17 8:00 PM ET — Bet #2 of 30 — all 4 trigger conditions met.

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Jump: Philosophy · 3 tiers · Methodology by sport · Tracking schema · Paper-bet mode

1. Philosophy

The 3-tier portfolio is the operational version of everything we've learned:

Selectivity matters (from BT3/BT4 — skip discipline)
Correlated parlays misprice (from BT3 top-5 longshots / BCE framework)
Confidence is mis-calibrated (from BT2 — STRONG bets underperformed)
You need 100+ tracked bets to know what works

Three tiers per game = three independent hypotheses tested simultaneously. Each tier accumulates its own data. After 50 weekends we know which tier gives Sam edge.

2. The 3 tiers

$5 stake

Tier B · safer bet

Single bet, moderate odds. v2 selectivity (skip coin flips, line agreement).

Target hit rate: 60-70%
Goal ROI: 2-5% long-term
Method: v2_selectivity

The boring but real part.

$5 stake

Tier C · middle parlay

2-3 leg correlated parlay. Tests correlation theory without 100:1 variance.

Target hit rate: 25-40%
Goal payouts: 3-10x stake
Method: correlated_2_3_leg

The "is correlation real?" test.

$10 (full trigger) · $5 (partial)

Tier A · longshot

Full BCE 4-5 leg parlay when 4/4 triggers fire. Reduced stake on 3/4. Uses Blowout Correlation Edge.

Target hit rate: 10-15% at 100:1
Goal: 1 hit makes the month
Method: BCE_full_trigger / BCE_partial

See BCE framework.

3. Methodology assignment by sport

Sport	Tier B	Tier C	Tier A
NBA Playoffs / Reg	v2 selectivity (skip coin flips)	2-leg correlated (winner + star prop)	BCE framework (4 trigger conditions)
MLB Regular	Talent gap + home (limited edge)	Winner + over/under correlated	Specific scenario (1st-inning + winner + HR)
Golf Majors	Top 5/10 for established player	3-leg cut/place parlay	3-leg longshot top finishes
NHL / NFL / other	TBD as Sam expands

4. Tracking schema

Every bet, paper or real, captured in this shape:

{
  "weekend_id": "2026-05-15-weekend",
  "game": "SAS vs MIN G6",
  "tier": "A",                         // A, B, or C
  "method_tag": "BCE_full_trigger",
  "trigger_conditions_met": 4,         // 0-4 for BCE
  "construction": "SAS -4 + Over 220 + Wemby 30+ pts + Wemby 12+ rebs",
  "stake": 10,
  "odds_estimate": "+1100",
  "potential_payout": 1100,
  "actually_placed": null,             // Sam fills: true/false + book
  "book": null,                        // DK / FD / MGM / Caesars / ...
  "outcome": null,                     // WIN / LOSS / PARTIAL
  "legs_hit": null,
  "legs_missed": null,
  "lessons": null
}

Stored under KV key portfolio-bet-{weekend_id}-{game_slug}-{tier}. Index of all weekend bets under portfolio-feed-{weekend_id}.

5. Paper-bet mode

Paper-bet mode means:

Every bet gets tracked with construction, odds, stake, outcome — whether or not Sam actually placed it.
Sam toggles "actually placed" + book per bet so we know the difference between paper P/L and real P/L.
After each game, outcomes scored against both paper and real ledgers.

Why this matters:

30-50 weekends of paper-bet tracking = real validation data without real bankroll exposure for unproven methods
BCE specifically needs 30 Tier A samples to validate — paper-betting lets that accumulate at $0 real risk if Sam wants
If Sam does place a bet, the same record holds the real stake too — no duplicate entry