Phase 1 target: 30 BCE bets. Decision points: at 10 (continue or abandon based on 2+ hits), at 30 (real edge if 12-20% hit rate). Each row of the weekend tracker Tier A column counts toward this when scored.
📊 Top-line stats
Days tracked
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Total bets
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Wins
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Losses
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Hit rate
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Paper P/L
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🧪 Methodology performance
Method
Uses
Wins
Hit %
Paper P/L
No scored bets yet. Will populate as outcomes are entered on the portfolio tracker.
📈 Factor accuracy
Each cited factor accumulates a hit/miss record across all scored predictions. Sorted by total citations. After 20-30 scored uses, real signal vs noise becomes visible.
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📅 Recent days
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❓ Key questions being answered
Q1: Does BCE hit at 10-15% in real samples? Need 30+ bets to know.
Q2: Does v2 selectivity beat blind betting in live data? Cumulative tracking will tell.
Q3: Which sports / situations have real edge? Factor accuracy data answers this.
Q4: How does Sam's "actually placed" subset perform vs paper-only? Compare placed=true outcomes to full ledger.
🗺️ Current strategy + roadmap
Current: Strategy v3 — 3-Tier Portfolio with BCE (see /bets/strategy/).
Next strategy update: after 10 BCE bets (Phase 1 checkpoint). Estimated ~June 5, 2026 at 1-2 BCE-qualifying games per weekend.