🎯 Bets

What you can still put in, the record, and everything else in one place.

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How a bet counts: a pick exists only when a line is logged before kickoff (Log it on the ledger). Lines move, so check the book before you place anything. Analysis is to inform your call, not a tip.

The record full ledger →

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Everything else, by what it is for

📈 Track record

LedgerEvery pick with its line, graded. The source of truth. Log lines here. PerformanceWin rate and ROI, read from the ledger. BankrollThe $10-a-pick simulation, read from the ledger. Prediction logThe May predictions and how they graded. 3-tier portfolioPaper-bet validation of the tier strategy.

🏈 NFL 2026

Week 1 gamesThe analysed Week 1 games and their pages. Steelers seasonEvery Steelers game, tracked. Minersville draft room -- Bet tabThe league's short list: last night + tonight. Public to all ten managers. Birdgang League (Win + Logan)Their league app: matchups, rosters, pickups, waivers, best ball. Full NFL schedule (login)All 272 games, filter by team, week, primetime. Fantasy (login)Your SE7EN roster, who plays when, injuries.

📐 How the framework works

MethodologyStart here: the rules, SameSHOT, what counts. Strategy v2Sport-specific framework. Dual-tier strategySafe picks plus longshots. Blowout correlation edgeOne edge, with its validation plan. Strategy evolution logWhat changed and why.

🧪 Did it work? Backtests

All backtests4 iterations plus the dual-tier review. MLB May 2026The strategy lost money. STRONG picks underperformed MEDIUM. NBA May 202620-game validation. Deep dive and vision (login)Why the ledger is the product.

🎓 Learn the concepts

Learn hubEV, vig and fair odds, CLV, Kelly, distributions. Learning dashboardBird's-eye view of what has been learned. Stats glossaryWhat the abbreviations mean.

🗃 Archive and plumbing

May 2026 hub (archive)NBA/MLB/NHL playoffs, golf, NASCAR. Kept whole. Teams (mostly May)Per-team pages across sports. Games index (May)The hand-curated May list. Automation statusWhat runs by itself and what does not. Odds API usageThe keyed feed. Lines above come from ESPN instead, no key needed.

Lines: gen-bet-lines.js (ESPN, one book). Finals close the ledger via nfl-finals-to-ledger.js. Record: data/bets-ledger.json.